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I’m not sure if the Republicans will hold the vote in January. The vote might slip until February or early March (because of budget negotiations). But I bet Republicans do hold the vote, and I think it’s better than 50/50 that Biden gets impeached.
Why, you ask?
That’s really two different questions. The first question is, “Why would a majority of the House of Representatives vote to impeach Joe Biden?” The second question is, “What did Joe Biden do that merits impeachment?”
Let me answer the first question at some length and then largely ignore the second, irrelevant question.
Why would a majority of the House of Representatives vote to impeach Joe Biden?
Biden is likely to be the Democratic nominee for president next year. Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee for president next year. To date, Trump has been impeached twice and indicted four times. He’s also been found civilly liable for sexual assault that, in the usual meaning of the word, constitutes rape. A court will repeat that finding after the second E. Jean Carroll defamation trial in January 2024. Within the next few months, a New York judge will also find that Trump committed fraud in his business dealings. That’s only civil liability, so I’m setting all that aside.
I’ll guess that Trump will be convicted of a felony at least once between now and Election Day. I’m not saying which felony in which case. I’m just thinking that prosecutors almost always win criminal cases, and Trump is facing multiple trials. At least one trial will result in a verdict against Trump before Election Day.
Thus, we’ll have an election campaign in which Democrats will scream, “You simply can’t vote for the twice-impeached, quadruply indicted, once-convicted guy. Vote for Biden!”
What’s the Republicans’ best response to that?
“Biden’s been impeached, too!”
Ergo: A majority of the House of Representatives will vote to impeach Biden early next year.
I realize that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson may not think that it’s politically wise to have a vote on impeaching Biden. But Johnson has to placate the nutjob wing of the Republican Party, so he’ll have a vote on the issue.
When that vote is held, many Republicans will see the political benefit that I just mentioned of dirtying up Biden by impeaching him. That accounts for damn near 200 votes in favor of impeachment right there.
Republicans then have to rustle up about 18 more votes to get to a majority. (No Democrats will vote to impeach Biden.) There are two categories of likely holdouts among House Republicans: the 18 Republicans from districts that Biden won in the 2022 election and the 11 Republicans who have announced that they won’t run for re-election in 2024.
The members from districts that Biden won will worry that voters in those districts will punish candidates for having voted in favor of impeaching Biden. The members who aren’t running for re-election will be able to vote their conscience because they’ll no longer be worrying about elective politics. The Republicans must convince roughly 18 of those 29 votes that are in play to vote in favor of impeachment.
My guess is that the Republicans will find the votes they need.
Trump will, of course, insist that all Republicans vote in favor of impeachment. Trump’s threats of encouraging a primary challenge to — or mean-tweeting — anyone who doesn’t do what he asks will carry a lot of weight with Republicans who want either re-election or a life after Congress. Thus, fence-sitting Republicans will be inclined to vote in favor of impeachment to placate Trump.
Combine that with pressure the fence-sitters will get from their Republican colleagues in Congress who will tell the undecideds that “We must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we will all hang separately.” There’s safety in numbers, and a near-unanimous vote in favor of impeachment benefits the group. Besides, Trump can win the presidency only by being able to tell the public that Biden’s been impeached, too, so everyone should ignore Trump’s legal woes.
My general sense is that politicians are spineless scum, so the Republicans will cave, and Biden will be impeached. (I don’t guarantee that, but it’s my strong suspicion. As I said, better than 50/50. Time will tell.)
Now let’s think about my second question: What did Joe Biden do that merits impeachment?
You silly goose.
Who cares? The vote on impeachment will be entirely political and won’t turn at all on whether impeachment is justified.
For those who are curious, here’s an article on Wikipedia about the efforts to impeach Biden. The substantive grounds for impeachment are Afghanistan! The border! COVID! Energy policy!
Those are all policy disputes and don’t remotely justify impeachment.
The other grounds for impeachment are Hunter Biden! James Biden! Other family members!
I don’t doubt for a minute that folks in Biden’s family capitalized on Joe’s famous last name. That’s typical in politics. Ask Billy Carter, the Rodham brother and brother-in-law, or anyone whose last name is Trump. Relatives of powerful politicians trade on their family names and connections. That’s life.
But unless someone identifies real evidence that Joe Biden personally did something illegal, Biden should remain in office. Wrongdoing by other family members justifies punishing those other family members; it doesn’t justify impeaching the president.
As I said, however, the basis for impeachment is irrelevant.
What’s relevant, and sad, is that it largely doesn’t matter whether Biden did anything wrong.
Biden will probably get impeached early next year. You read it here first.
Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.
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